Uncertainty plays a key role in environmental management decisions. The decision process must include assessment of uncertainty in both measured and calculated data. The long history of tracking waste at DOE sites serves to illustrate the challenge to adequately include uncertainty. Frequently, predictive efforts have not had the desired accuracy in describing the essential behavior of a contaminant.
Uncertainties arise in multiple ways which include: in geophysical science a random error can come up, in mathematical models there may be a lack of sufficient details, in integration or combination of models and data aren’t linked together due to mismatched scales, local corrections in seismic maps and thermal-neutron moisture determination, limitations to visualize and define geological structures, etc.
Uncertainty estimates and evaluations provide the critical basis for decision-makers managing risk, which may include the consideration of factors such as societal and biological relevance. Many analytical tools are available to help stakeholders assess risk to make technically sound, cost effective, and minimal-risk remediation decisions.
Uncertainties in the geophysical data and remediation process model are critical inputs to determine the range of probable outcomes. Other advanced risk management tools are portfolios, options, and preference theory- which includes various remediation options and stakeholder influence. These tools all use uncertainty as a principal input to their evaluation.
- Contacts:
- Mark Ankeny, (208) 526-5748, Send E-mail